Intelligence
Market Data
The evidence base for whether the market exists, how big it is, and where the gaps are. Data from Gallup, SBRnet, Nielsen, FIFA, and 25+ additional sources.
Fandom Growth
Soccer is now the #4 sport in America and climbing. Among 18–34 year olds, it's been #2 behind only football since 2017.
| Year | % Naming Soccer as Favorite | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 2% | Baseline |
| 2004–2007 | ~2% | Flat |
| 2008 | Above 2% | Early acceleration |
| 2017 | 7% | Nearly matching baseball (9%); clear #4 sport |
| 2024 | 5% | Basketball at 11%, baseball at 9% |
Source: Gallup polling, 2018 and 2024[1][2]
Americans express interest in the 2026 World Cup — 34M women, 17M Hispanic, 12M Black fans.[3]
increase in new US soccer fans compared to the prior five-year period. 17% of current fans are new in the last 5 years.[4]
37% of the general US population expects their soccer interest to increase heading into 2026.[5]
27% of US-based sports fans show interest in soccer (vs. 40% global average).[6]
Soccer surpassed ice hockey as #4 US sport — 5% vs 4% in 2024 Gallup.[1]
Growth Pattern — Non-Linear and Accelerating
1996–2010
Slow build. MLS launched, 1994 World Cup afterglow faded, growth modest and sometimes stagnant.
2010–2018
Steady acceleration. Premier League accessibility via NBC deal (2013), streaming growth. Gallup numbers tripled from ~2% to 7%.
2018–2024
Steeper acceleration. International viewership grew 60% (31.4M to 50.3M). MLS attendance up ~21K to 23.2K+. NWSL attendance nearly quadrupled.
2024–present
Pre-World Cup surge. Club World Cup 2025 averaged ~36K per match. Corporate sponsorship, valuations, and media interest accelerated.
International Viewership
50.3M Americans watch non-US soccer — up 60% since 2018. The audience exists. The question is whether any domestic product can tap it.
| League | US Viewers (2024) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| English Premier League | 36.2M | 72% of total international viewership |
| UEFA Champions League | 21.8M | |
| La Liga (Spain) | 13.7M | |
| Liga MX (Mexico) | 9.2M | Declining — see below |
| Serie A (Italy) | Growing | Particularly in US South |
| Bundesliga (Germany) | Growing | +4.6pp female viewership 2022–2024 |
Source: SBRnet / Samford University[7] and For Soccer[4]
EPL overtakes Liga MX
First time in 2023. Liga MX Univision viewership dropped ~30%. By 2023, EPL was 30% of US soccer viewership vs. Liga MX at 23%.[9]
TV saturation
96% of days in 2024 had at least one soccer game on US television. Broadcasts up 53% since 2020.[8]
Multi-league fans
66% of American soccer fans follow multiple leagues. Only 16% watch a single league. The audience is sophisticated and omnivorous.[4]
Tournament Performance
Americans show up for event-format soccer at massive scale. Copa America, Club World Cup, and Gold Cup all set records.
| Event | Viewership / Attendance | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Euro 2024 Final | ~6.5M US viewers on FOX | For Soccer |
| Copa America 2024 Final | 11.3M combined (6.1M FOX + 5.2M Univision) | For Soccer |
| Copa America 2024 (avg) | 1.4M per match — up 44% from 2016 | For Soccer |
| 2025 Gold Cup Final (USA vs Mexico) | 70,925 sellout at NRG Stadium | Portada |
| 2025 FIFA Club World Cup | 2.5M in-person; 63 matches; ~36K avg; 2.7B global | FIFA/Nielsen |
| CWC — US TV | 9.2M total (Univision); Final: 1.43M | TelevisaUnivision |
| CWC — Youth engagement | 58% of fans 18–34 watched ≥1 match vs. 34% general | YouGov |
| CWC — MetLife peak | Chelsea-PSG final: 81,118 | FIFA |
| CWC — Rose Bowl opener | PSG vs Atletico Madrid: 80,619 | FIFA |
Sources: For Soccer[11], FIFA/Nielsen[12], YouGov[13], Portada[14], TelevisaUnivision[15], FIFA Stats[16]
MLS — The Incumbent
Record attendance, catastrophic TV viewership, and a valuation puzzle. MLS's contradictions define the opportunity for new entrants.
Attendance — The Strongest Metric
| Season | Avg. Attendance | Total | Teams | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 13,756 | — | 12 | Record low |
| 2002 | — | 2.2M | 10 | Post-contraction |
| 2015 | ~20,000 | — | 20 | |
| 2022 | ~21,000 | — | 28 | Pre-Messi |
| 2023 | ~22,000 | 10.9M | 29 | Messi arrives |
| 2024 | 23,234 (record) | 11.45M (record) | 29 | 10 clubs set records; 213 sellouts |
| 2025 | 21,988 | 11.21M | 30 | -5.4% vs. record |
Sources: Wikipedia/MLS Attendance[17], MLSSoccer.com[18], Sports Illustrated[19]
TV Viewership — The Achilles Heel
After Apple TV
120K
avg viewers per match — a 65% decline. MLS Cup Final drew as low as 65K. Apple spent ~$200 per viewer.[15]
Resolution (Nov 2025)
Paywall eliminated for 2026. Deal shortened to end 2029. MLS re-enters media rights market post-World Cup.[16]
The paywall's damage was clear: ~1/3 of World Cup fans said it kept them from watching MLS. 54% of non-subscribers said they'd watch on traditional broadcast. 2/3 said they were unlikely to follow MLS the next year under Apple's exclusive setup.[17]
Franchise Valuations
total enterprise value across 30 teams. Average franchise: $690M.[24]
YoY valuation growth — the lowest of any major US sports league (NFL 20%, NBA 20%, WNBA 180%).[26]
| Club | Sportico Value | Forbes Value |
|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami | $1.45B | $1.35B |
| LAFC | $1.4B | $1.25B |
| LA Galaxy | $1.17B | $1B |
| Atlanta United | $1.14B | — |
| New York City FC | $1.12B | $1.02B |
Sources: Sportico[24], Forbes[25]
Most recent expansion fee: $500M (San Diego FC, 2023) — up from $10M (Toronto, 2005).[24] But only 14 of 30 clubs are profitable. Valuation multiples (6.7x–9.8x revenue) exceed Real Madrid (5.8x) and Bayern Munich (6.3x) — driven by growth expectations, not cash flows.[26]
Calendar shift
November 2025: MLS owners voted for a summer-to-spring calendar starting July 2027, aligning with FIFA's global schedule.[27]
Digital growth
Fastest-growing social media among major NA men's sports leagues in 2024: TikTok +26%, YouTube +21%. Merchandise in 800+ European retail stores.[14]
NWSL — The Rising Tide
The fastest-growing professional soccer league in America. Shows what's possible when the product meets the moment.
| Season | Average | Total | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | ~7,800 | — | |
| 2023 | ~10,600 | — | First women's league to avg 10K+ |
| 2024 | 11,250 | 2 million (first time) | +6% YoY; 89 matches at 10K+ (up from 55) |
Sources: NWSLSoccer.com[28], ESPN[29], Sportico[30]
295%
viewership increase in 2024; up another 22% in 2025.[31]
$240M
media deal (4 years) with CBS, ESPN, Amazon, Scripps.[29]
+91%
revenue growth in 2024 (~$215M across 14 clubs).[30]
Additional sources: Front Office Sports[32], SponsorUnited[33]
The 2026 World Cup Window
78 games on US soil. The largest sporting event ever held in the country. The timing case for everything APL is building.
78
games on US soil, including all QF onward
6.5M
expected in-person attendees
87M
Americans express interest
55%
of 18–34 year olds plan to watch
147K
Americans bought tickets to Qatar 2022 — more than any visiting nation
Sources: SBRnet[7], For Soccer[3], Nielsen[5], Straight Arrow News[34], ShareAmerica.gov[6]
Club World Cup 2025 served as successful dress rehearsal: 2.5M attendees, ~36K avg per match, 81,118 for Chelsea-PSG final at MetLife. 77% of US soccer fans viewed it as a valuable test run.[12]
Historical caution
The 1994 World Cup was supposed to transform American soccer — it didn't. But structural conditions in 2026 are fundamentally different: soccer embedded in youth culture, media infrastructure exists, immigrant communities larger, 50M+ already watching.
Geographic Distribution
Where the US soccer audience actually lives — and why it matters for APL's market selection.
| Region | International Soccer Viewers | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| South Atlantic (FL, GA, Carolinas, VA, MD, DC, DE, WV) | 11.5 million | Highest concentration |
| Pacific (CA, OR, WA, AK, HI) | 12.6 million | Strong Liga MX audience |
| West South Central (TX, OK, AR, LA) | Fastest-growing | La Liga +120.8%, Serie A +82.6%, UCL +69.5% |
| Southern US total | 20.4 million | 41% of all US soccer fans |
Source: SBRnet / Samford University[7]
Tension with APL's Northeast focus
The data says the energy is in the South Atlantic, Texas, and the Pacific — not the Northeast. APL's Northeast focus has structural advantages (youth participation, college programs, immigrant communities, travel efficiency) but goes against the geographic demand data.[7]
Market Selection Framework
How to evaluate where APL clubs should go — the criteria, the tradeoffs, and how the 8 candidate cities score.
Evaluation Criteria
Metro population
Sets the ceiling for attendance, sponsors, and media interest. Below ~500K metro, even USL L1 hesitates.
Tension: Larger metros have bigger ceilings but more competition for entertainment dollars.
Existing pro sports saturation
Every pro team in a market competes for attention, sponsorship, and venue dates. A market with no pro team means APL is the event.
Tension: Big metros have the most people but also the most competition. Small markets are greenfield but have thinner demand.
Soccer-specific demand signals
Immigrant communities from soccer-first countries, youth participation rates, active amateur/rec leagues, and existing supporter culture all indicate latent demand.
Tension: The strongest soccer communities may be in metros that also have MLS or USL teams already.
College soccer infrastructure
D1–D3 programs supply players, coaching talent, and a built-in fan base of families and alumni. The NE footprint has 40+ programs.
Tension: College soccer is stronger in the NE than almost anywhere else — a genuine structural advantage.
Venue availability (3K–5K capacity)
Too small looks amateur. Too big creates an empty-stadium problem. The ideal is a venue that can sell out at 1,500–3,000 and feel full.
Tension: Municipal stadiums are cheap but may lack the infrastructure for a quality matchday experience.
Distance from other APL clubs
Regional density keeps travel costs to $2–4K per away trip (bus charter + meals). Coast-to-coast travel is untenable at APL's capitalization.
Tension: Clustering in the NE optimizes cost but limits the addressable market to one region.
Historical precedent
Has professional or semi-professional soccer been attempted here before? If it failed, why? If it hasn't been tried, is that opportunity or warning?
Tension: Multiple NE markets have failed to sustain pro soccer (Long Island, Bridgeport, Rochester, Hartford). But the models that failed were different from APL's.
Candidate City Evaluation
| Market | Metro Pop | Pro Sports Saturation | Soccer Community | College Programs | Venue | Precedent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Boston | 4.9M (Boston metro) | High — Revs, Red Sox, Patriots, Celtics, Bruins. But Revs are 30mi away in Foxborough. | Very strong — 57% Hispanic, deep soccer culture, distinct from suburban Foxborough | BC, BU, Northeastern, Harvard + many D2/D3 | Memorial Stadium (5K) ✓ | No direct precedent at this level in East Boston specifically |
| Worcester, MA | 950K | None — no professional sports team | Strong — Brazilian, Ghanaian communities; active rec leagues | Holy Cross, WPI, Worcester State, Clark | Foley Stadium (3K) ✓ | No pro soccer precedent. Greenfield market. |
| New Haven, CT | 864K | None — no professional sports team | Strong — Central American, Caribbean communities | Yale, SCSU, Quinnipiac | Bowen Field (5K) ✓ | No pro soccer. Bridgeport (nearby) failed in MLL with 2,866 avg. |
| Albany, NY | 880K | None — no major pro sports | Moderate — refugee resettlement communities; growing | UAlbany (D1) | TBD (3–5K needed) | No pro soccer precedent. |
| Long Island, NY | 2.8M | Moderate — no teams on LI itself, but NYC proximity means competition | Very strong — largest youth soccer region in US | Multiple programs | Mitchell Athletic Complex (possible) | NASL Cosmos folded. MLL struggled. Historical failure at pro level. |
| Providence, RI | 1.6M | None — no major pro sports | Very strong — Portuguese, Brazilian, Cape Verdean communities | Brown, Providence College | TBD | No pro soccer. Recommended over Manchester NH by every measure. |
| Cape Cod, MA | Seasonal | None | Limited year-round; summer population doubles | Minimal | TBD | Cape Cod Baseball League (summer) is the precedent model. Viable as summer-only? |
| Stamford, CT | Part of NYC metro | High — NYC proximity saturates sports options | Moderate — Fairfield County affluence, soccer-playing families | Limited locally | TBD | No precedent. NYC competition is the concern. |
Based on: SBRnet geographic data[7], Aspen Institute participation[36], Mass Youth Soccer[41], historical failure data from comparable-leagues research
The Core Tradeoff
Big metro (East Boston, Long Island, Stamford)
Pros
- Larger population ceiling — more potential fans, sponsors, media attention.
- Better venue infrastructure and accessibility.
- Easier to attract ownership groups with deeper pockets.
Cons
- Competing with established pro teams for attention and dollars.
- Higher operating costs (venues, staff, marketing).
- Harder to become "the team" the community rallies around.
- NE Revolution in 4.9M-person Boston metro can't consistently fill their stadium.
Small/mid market (Worcester, New Haven, Albany, Providence)
Pros
- "Only game in town" effect — can become the community's team.
- Lower operating costs.
- Deeper community integration is more authentic and achievable.
- Less noise; easier to build local media relationships.
Cons
- Thinner demand ceiling — 206K (Worcester), 134K (New Haven), 100K (Albany) are small.
- Smaller sponsor pool and lower sponsorship values.
- Similar NE markets have failed: Bridgeport (2,866), Rochester (hiatus), Hartford (struggling).
- May not attract the quality of ownership that ensures long-term stability.
Synthesis
The research suggests the answer isn't one or the other — it's a portfolio. East Boston as the anchor in a major metro, surrounded by smaller markets where APL is the only pro sports option. The key is that every market must have at least one strong demand signal (immigrant soccer community, college infrastructure, or youth density) beyond just population size.
Open Sub-Questions
Should Providence replace Manchester NH? Providence is stronger by every measure: 1.6M metro vs 415K, Portuguese/Brazilian/Cape Verdean soccer communities, Brown/PC soccer infrastructure. Recommendation: yes.
Is Cape Cod viable year-round, or only as a summer play? The Cape Cod Baseball League model works for summer. Year-round is unproven with seasonal population.
Should Long Island be in the initial launch? Largest youth soccer region in the US, but pro soccer has failed there twice (NASL Cosmos, MLL). The youth density is the strongest argument; the precedent is the strongest argument against.
Fan Behavior & Demographics
Who these fans are, how they engage, and why they're commercially attractive.
66%
of American soccer fans follow multiple leagues; only 16% follow a single league.
17%
of current fans started following within the last 5 years.
75%
of all soccer fans have played soccer at some point; 42% still actively play.
14M
Americans play outdoor soccer recreationally.
Brand responsiveness: Soccer fans over-index on brand responsiveness — more responsive to sponsored products than NBA, MLB, or NFL fans.[5]
Youth Participation
The picture is nuanced. Different sources measure different things, and whether soccer is "growing" or "declining" depends on which metric you look at.
Reconciling the Data
| Source | Metric | Age Group | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| SFIA Topline | Total participants (played 1+) | Ages 6+ | Growing strongly (11.9M → 16.7M outdoor, 2017–2024) |
| SFIA Core | Regular participants (26+/year) | Ages 6+ | Growing — only team sport with core growth 2019–22 |
| Aspen / Project Play | % of youth playing regularly | Ages 6–17 | Slightly declining (-3%, 2019–2024) |
| NFHS | High school participants | HS students | Growing (878K in 2024–25, both genders up) |
| US Youth Soccer | Formal registrations | Youth | Stable (~2.5M annually) |
| Morning Consult | Parent-reported play | Ages 6–17 | Top 3 sport (26% of children) |
Sources: SFIA[35], Aspen Institute[36], NFHS[37], For Soccer/SFIA[38], Morning Consult[40]
Key takeaway
More Americans play soccer than ever in raw numbers, but growth is disproportionately casual. The casual-to-core gap is the real challenge — lots of kids trying soccer, fewer sticking as committed players.[25]
SFIA Total Participation (Ages 6+)
| Year | Total Outdoor Participants | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 11.9 million | — |
| 2019 | 11.9 million | First increase since 2015 |
| 2022 | ~13.0 million | |
| 2023 | 14.1 million | +8.1% / +23% since 2018 |
| 2024 | 16.7M outdoor; 6.6M indoor | Combined ~20.5M |
Source: SFIA[35]
High School Soccer (NFHS)
| 2023–24 | 2024–25 | Change | Ranking | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girls | 383,895 | 393,048 | +2.38% | #3 girls sport |
| Boys | 467,483 | 484,908 | Significant gain | #4 boys sport |
| Combined | ~878,000 |
Cost barrier
Flag football competition
Flag football is directly eating into soccer: in 2012, soccer exceeded flag among ages 6–12 by 6.4 percentage points; by 2024, the gap shrank to 3.5 points. Flag is the only team sport that grew (+14%) in regular participation rate 2019–2024.[26]
Northeast — APL's Footprint
Massachusetts: 65% youth sports participation rate (top 5 nationally).
New Hampshire: 68% youth sports participation rate (top 5 nationally).
APL footprint contains 40+ D1-D3 college soccer programs.
Mass Youth Soccer registration trending upward, preparing for post-2026 growth.
Key Tensions in the Data
The honest contradictions — what the numbers don't agree on.
MLS Viewership vs. Everything Else
Nearly every metric is up — fandom, attendance, international viewership, valuations, sponsorship, social media, NWSL — except MLS television viewership, which cratered after the Apple TV deal. Resolution underway: paywall eliminated in 2026.
International Fandom Booming, MLS Still a Distant Third
American fans are increasingly sophisticated and multi-league, but MLS remains behind the Premier League and Liga MX. The EPL's viewership over just 9 Christmas-period days exceeded all of MLS's TV broadcasts for the entirety of 2023.
Franchise Values vs. Revenue
MLS franchise values growing but at the slowest rate of any major US sports league (6% YoY). Only 14 of 30 clubs profitable. If the 2026 WC doesn't deliver the expected boost, valuations could face scrutiny.
Sources & References
- [1]Gallup, Football Retains Dominant Position as Favorite Sport (Feb 2024)
- [2]Gallup, Football Still Americans' Favorite Sport to Watch (Jan 2018)
- [3]For Soccer, World Cup American Fan Insights (Nov 2025)
- [4]For Soccer, 2024-25 United States of Soccer (Nov 2025)
- [5]Nielsen Fan Insights, World Cup 2026 (Oct 2025)
- [6]ShareAmerica.gov, Sports, Soccer, World Cup (Jun 2025)
- [7]SBRnet / Samford University Center for Sports Analytics, America's Soccer Revolution: 5 Viewing Trends Poised to Make World Cup 2026 a True Watershed Moment (May 2025)
- [8]For Soccer, 2024 Soccer on U.S. TV Year in Review (Oct 2025)
- [9]World Soccer Talk, EPL Surpasses Liga MX (Dec 2023 / Jan 2024)
- [10]Portada, Liga MX / EPL Viewership Analysis (Dec 2024)
- [11]For Soccer, Tournament Viewership Report (Oct 2025)
- [12]FIFA, Club World Cup 2025 Achieves Global Success with 2.7 Billion Audience (Sep 2025)
- [13]YouGov, FIFA Club World Cup Success (Aug 2025)
- [14]Portada, CONCACAF Gold Cup Final (Dec 2025)
- [15]TelevisaUnivision, Club World Cup US TV Viewership (Jul 2025)
- [16]FIFA, Club World Cup 2025 Stats: Group Stage Goals, Attendances, Countries (Jun 2025)
- [17]Wikipedia, MLS Attendance (updated Mar 2026)
- [18]MLSSoccer.com, Major League Soccer Completes Record-Setting Regular Season (Oct 2024)
- [19]Sports Illustrated, MLS Attendance Coverage (May 2025 / Oct 2024)
- [20]Front Office Sports, MLS Reveals Apple TV Streaming Numbers, Raising Questions (Jul 2025)
- [21]Sportico, Apple MLS Streaming Contract Change (Nov 2025)
- [22]Cord Cutters News, Study Reveals Growing Discontent with MLS Apple TV Deal (Aug 2025)
- [23]World Soccer Talk, Apple TV's MLS Gamble Backfires: Record-Low Final Viewership (Dec 2024)
- [24]Sportico, MLS Team Values 2025 (Jan 2025)
- [25]Forbes, MLS Franchise Valuations (Feb 2025)
- [26]Sportico, 2025 Sports Team Values (Dec 2025)
- [27]Sportcal, MLS Calendar Shift (Nov 2025)
- [28]NWSLSoccer.com, 2024 Season Review (Nov 2024)
- [29]ESPN, NWSL Season Review (Nov 2024)
- [30]Sportico, NWSL Valuations (Nov 2024)
- [31]Just Women's Sports, NWSL Growth Report (Nov 2025)
- [32]Front Office Sports, NWSL Attendance / Growth (Aug 2024)
- [33]SponsorUnited, NWSL Sponsorship Report (Aug 2025)
- [34]Straight Arrow News, Underdog No More: How Soccer Is Surging in US (Nov 2025)
- [35]SFIA, U.S. Soccer Participation Data (Feb 2026)
- [36]Aspen Institute Project Play, State of Play 2025 — Participation Trends (Dec 2025)
- [37]NFHS, Participation in High School Sports Hits Record High with Sizable Increase in 2024-25 (Aug 2024 / Aug 2025)
- [38]For Soccer / SFIA, Soccer Participation in the United States (Nov 2024)
- [39]McKinsey / U.S. Soccer, Youth Soccer Cost and Access Study
- [40]Morning Consult, Youth Sports Parent Survey (Sep 2025)
- [41]Mass Youth Soccer, Program Reports (Mar 2024)